July 2024 New-Season Farm Confidence Survey
The survey is undertaken twice a year (January and July); this is the 31st iteration.
Key Messages
The July 2024 survey saw a decline in farmer confidence.
Key points include:
- General economic conditions (current): A net 66% of respondents consider the current economic climate to be bad, an 11-point deterioration. This is the second lowest figure recorded in the survey’ s history, with the lowest being July 2023 at -80%. Dairy farmers have seen a shift from 34% expecting the economy to worsen in January 2024, to 53% in July 2024.
- General economic conditions (expectations): A net 6% of respondents expect economic conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months. Down 7% since January 2024.
- Farm profitability (current): Overall, 33% of farmers are making a loss, with only 27% reporting a profit and 39% breaking even. The net score for perceptions of profitability is -7%, a signific ant decline from +61% in January 2022.
- Farm profitability (expectations): A net 10% of respondents expect their profitability to decline ov er the next 12 months, an 11-point improvement from January 2024 when a net 21% expected i t to decline.
- Farm production (expectations): A net 8% of respondents expect their production to increase over the next 12 months, a small 2-point improvement from January 2023. This marks the first time since 2016/17 that there have been two consecutive periods of predicted growth in farm production.
- Farm spending (expectations): A net 3% of respondents expect their spending to decrease over the next 12 months, a 7-point deterioration from the January 2024 survey when a net 4% expected their spending to increase.
- Farm debt (expectations): Farm debt is expected to remain steady, consistent with RBNZ data.
- Ability to recruit (experienced): A net 15% of respondents reported it has been harder to recruit skilled and motivated staff over the past six months, down 8 points from January 2024. This is the lowest level since July 2012.
- Greatest concerns (current): The four greatest concerns for farmers are Debt, Interest & Banks; Farmgate & Commodity Prices; Regulation & Compliance Costs; and Input Costs. Concerns about Climate Change Policy & ETS have decreased. The proportion of farmers who feel these concerns are affecting their mental health and wellbeing remains steady at about 50%.
- Highest government priorities: The four highest priorities farmers want the Government to address are Economy & Business Environment; Fiscal Policy; Regulation & Compliance Costs; and Monetary Policy. Climate Change Policy and ETS dropped from fourth place in July 2023 to tenth place in July 2024. Local Government Reform also appeared on the list for the first time, in eighth place, in July 2024.